The withdrawal of US forces in Afghanistan, described in the media as chaotic and disorderly but announced, has left the Afghan territory to a fate dominated by a scenario of chaos, violence, and instability resulting from the control of power, traffic of opium and heroin, and of the energy resources of the territory. But it is not only necessary to be attentive to the evolution of the internal Afghan panorama, but also to frame it in the global geopolitical dynamics. The situation in Afghanistan is an opportunity for China’s commercial and strategic interests. Russia and Iran are also interested in playing a strategic role in Afghanistan, so China must be skilful and cautious in its diplomacy and actions so as not to interfere in the interests of Moscow and Tehran.

Regarding the internal situation in Afghanistan, in recent years, the Taliban have been gaining ground, taking advantage of the shortcomings of a corrupt government incapable of meeting the needs of its population. Once in power, the immediate internal struggle between the Taliban to maintain control of the territory and the current government in Kabul is likely to filter across its borders, posing a political and military challenge, as well as posing a security threat to the countries in the region surrounding Afghanistan and Pakistan. Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are promoting a dialogue with the Taliban to stop the arrival of Daesh fighters, who are believed to be hidden in northern Afghanistan.

The Taliban must focus efforts now to survive and consolidate and, for this, they need external help. China, the main applicant, has longed for years to take over the exploitation of the territory’s natural resources, but for this it needs the Taliban to exercise absolute control of the entire territory. This is confirmed by the dialogues between China and the Taliban since 2014. Russia is another candidate in the construction of infrastructure, military bases, arms sales, and control of resources. While China’s interest stems from its energy and commercial needs, Russia’s is more of a geostrategic interest. From what happened in Afghanistan, China will draw conclusions about its position in the South China Sea, in front of Taiwan; and the Russians will make their own regarding their position in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and the Ukraine. When it comes to Iran’s role in Afghanistan, the Iranian reality clashes with its interests. The Islamic Republic of Iran has helped the Taliban wreak havoc on US interests in the region and now, with the US withdrawal, might be expected to exert more influence in Afghanistan. But the reality is that this would mean an increase in resources at the expense of those invested in the Middle East. wield greater influence in Afghanistan. But the reality is that this would mean an increase in resources at the expense of those invested in the Middle East. wield greater influence in Afghanistan. But the reality is that this would mean an increase in resources at the expense of those invested in the Middle East.

On the other hand, another important factor to consider is the loss of US global hegemony. The United States is no longer trusted to support other states or territories; foreign aid is currently seen as ineffective if there is internal chaos in a state or territory. The United States has realized that the spread of democracy and nation building is unattainable and that maintaining its presence in Afghanistan indefinitely does not serve any of its National Security interests. With the precedent of the withdrawal from Iraq and the virtual inaction in the face of the atrocities in Syria, the United States has opted for withdrawal as an alternative solution to the crises; it cannot solve problems that have to do with the use or threat of use of force.

The rapid collapse of the Afghan government and its army in the face of the Taliban has shown that the US approach was wrong. Since 2017, it has been seen that the United States was unable to turn the Afghan army into a competent and operational fighting force, despite the

efforts in training, military means, and resources invested ^[1] . Since 2018, the Taliban have been gaining strength and controlling most of the territory, making the conflict increasingly intense and complicated ^[2] . With this achievement they have achieved greater influence and a position of strength that allows them to sit at a negotiating table. This had already been established on February 29, 2020 with an agreement that addressed the reduction of violence, the withdrawal of foreign troops, the start of negotiations between Afghan factions, and the guarantee that Afghanistan would not return to being a haven for terrorists ^[3]. But with a weak Afghan government due to its ethnic, sectarian and tribal differences, and the control that the Taliban have been acquiring, a troop withdrawal already announced a destabilization of the territory. The Taliban are now in a stronger position to negotiate. And in this sense, its partnership with China offers it the possibility of exerting diplomatic pressure in forums such as the United Nations ^[4] .

The fall of the Afghan government not only has important consequences in the short and medium term for the countries surrounding Afghanistan and Pakistan; it is also for States such as Turkey, Iran, China, Russia or Pakistan, and for the Middle East region. And also for Europe. The return of non-indigenous combatants and the distribution of infiltrators or sleeper agents among the refugees are the main concerns in the very short term. It is feasible that problems are growing in the Muslim Mediterranean, and the destabilization of monarchies such as the Jordanian or Moroccan is feasible, with its consequent effects on its neighbors, if this eventuality materializes.

Regarding the Middle East, terrorist groups will continue their efforts to carry out terrorist attacks against US, European and Israeli targets around the world. Along with the aggressive attitude of Iran and the political instability of Lebanon, the Middle East will continue the same constant, with the proliferation of terrorism that directly threatens the West. The change in the Middle East is that it is going to give up its importance in global geopolitics in favor of the Indo-Pacific area. The withdrawal from Afghanistan has been quickly followed by the creation of a trilateral security entity between the United States, Britain and Australia, with the acronym AUKUS, whose purpose is to counter the growing power of China. Both events are strategically related in the Sino-US competition. At the same time, but in other terms, the European Union has also proposed an Indo-Pacific Strategy. The Anglo-Saxon alliance is focused on technology as a nexus, pooling resources and supply chains with technology in science, especially defense. Advanced defense technology is the factor that is intended to counter China’s global influence. And the United States is going to use all its resources to contain China, whether or not it is to the liking of its European allies, who have become actors of no strategic value. Advanced defense technology is the factor that is intended to counter China’s global influence. And the United States is going to use all its resources to contain China, whether or not it is to the liking of its European allies, who have become actors of no strategic value. Advanced defense technology is the factor that is intended to counter China’s global influence. And the United States is going to use all its resources to contain China, whether or not it is to the liking of its European allies, who have become actors of no strategic value.

The expansion of Chinese influence has been underway for more than a decade. Formally, with its New Silk Road project ( Belt and Road Initiative ) in 2013, although this is an idea that began to be introduced in the seventies in the context of internal tensions in Central and West Asia and subsequent Soviet war in Afghanistan ^[5] . Also the so-called “string of pearls” that forms its naval presence, and which extends from the Chinese mainland to the Persian Gulf, dates from the end of the 20th century ^[6] .

The focus of attention will shift to Africa and the Pacific, given the military bases deployed not only by China or Russia but also by Turkey, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. Likewise, the United States during the Obama Administration moved more than 50% of the bulk of its military forces from the Atlantic to the Pacific, going from being located in front of Russia to being in front of China ^[7] .

The loss of the United States’ presence in the Middle East, its withdrawal from Afghanistan, the establishment of the AUKUS military pact and the increase in China’s global presence give rise to a scenario that could lead to a future confrontation with China. The Asian giant intends to occupy the hegemonic gap left by the North Americans if we look at its naval presence. With the establishment of its naval bases, China intends to guarantee its access to maritime routes in order to protect its strategic supplies, given the impossibility of establishing oil pipelines. For its part, the United States is going to leave the area of ​​the Persian Gulf to maintain a monitoring of the area with the greatest world commercial traffic that makes Vietnam, Japan and South Korea a buffer for Chinese expansion.

Recent events are part of a change in strategy towards the Indo-Pacific region, which has now become a priority scenario that represents almost half of world economic production, and where India and South Korea emerge with great economic projection. All this without neglecting the perception of China as a military threat, given the strengthening of its military means in the region. We must understand the need to strengthen deterrence and be prepared to face a future conflict, given China’s economic and military ambitions. And that is how the Biden Administration seems to have understood it, which, following the hard line against Beijing of the Trump Administration, has hardened its position against China ^[8]. We must be aware that in the new geopolitical framework there is no room for strategic errors.

^[1] Tellis, JA, Eggers, J. (2017, May 22), “US Policy in Afghanistan: Changing Strategies, Preserving Gains”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/05/ 22/us-policy-in-afghanistan-changing-strategies-preserving-gains-pub-70027

^[2] Cube, C. (2018, January 30), “The Taliban is gaining strength and territory in Afghanistan”, NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/numbers-afghanistan-are- not-good-n842651

^[3] Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban and the United States of America, (2020, February 29), Department of State , https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

^[4] China had initially refused to endorse a UN Security Council resolution put forward by the US, UK and France, setting out the new regime’s clear expectations for the future of Afghanistan. Subsequently, he changed his position, more favorable to collaborating with the international community for fear that the Afghan country could become a safe haven for terrorism.

^[5] Smotrytska, M.(2021, August 4), “China’s ‘Belt And Road’ Initiative: Genesis And Development – ​​Analysis”, Eurasia Review , https://www.eurasiareview.com/04082021-chinas-belt- and-road-initiative-genesis-and-development-analysis/

^[6] See Lintner, B. (2019), The costliest Pearl. China’s Struggle for India’s Ocean, London: C. Hurst & Co Publishers.

^[7] Sanger, E.D. Landler, M. (2014, April 21), “Obama’s Strategic Shift to Asia Is Hobbled by Pressure at Home and Crises Abroad”, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/22/ world/asia/obamas-strategic-shift-to-asia-is-hobbled-by-pressure-at-home-and-crises-abroad.html

^[8] The United States Innovation and Competition Act 2021 (USICA) fits into this position, a legislative package aimed at promoting technology and research in its territory, and an Executive Order that entered into force on August 2, 2021 banning US investment in a dozen Chinese defense and technology companies with alleged military ties.

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